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The economy is strong, so why are we at Global View Capital Advisors concerned about a recession?
We recently partnered with the leading financial research firm Guggenheim Investments. Their research shows the next recession will likely occur sometime in 2020, however, thanks to our robust tactical management strategies, we're prepared to help keep your money protected from sever market declines..
That's what we at Global View Capital Advisors are all about.
Our view that the next recession will begin as early as the first half of 2020 remains intact in the latest update of our Recession Dashboard and Recession Probability Model. Recession probability rose across all horizons in the first quarter of 2019, most notably in the 24-month timeframe.
The Dashboard on the next page shows a loss of downward momentum in the unemployment rate, a flat yield curve, and slowing economic activity.
The six indicators in our Recession Dashboard have exhibited consistent cyclical behavior that can be tracked relatively well in real time. We compare these indicators during the last five cycles that are similar in length to the current one, overlaying the current cycle.
Taken together, they suggest that the expansion still has room to run for approximately 12 more months.
This proprietary gauge of current market conditions attempts to quantify both the technical health of the market and strategist opinion into one indexed value on a weekly basis. In essence, are we in a “Bullish” mode and risk-on, or a “Bearish” mode and risk-off? Inputs include the current outlook of market strategists/money managers that we hold in high-regard**, coupled with popular technical indicators, investment sentiment gauges and proprietary tactical signals that historically have proven their long-term merits.***
Made with Visme Infographic Maker
** Market Strategist opinions from the following firms: The Chartist, Ned Davis Research, Quantitative Analysis Services, Lowry’s Research, Howard Capital, Heritage Capital Research and Potomac Advisors.
*** Technical Indicators include: Advance/Decline Indicator, VIX Index, sentiment polls (Investors Intelligence, The American Association of Individual Investors, National Association of Active Investment Management), and proprietary tactical signals from GVCM’s majority-owned AdvisorGuide LLC.